"the economy’s biggest problem isn’t demand, it is supply. Most Americans have money; they are just constrained in how they spend it because of pandemic-related business restrictions or fears.
Advocates say hard-working Americans deserve a bigger check. That misses the point of stimulus: by definition, most hard-working Americans have a paycheck. In fact, aggregate wages and salaries were just 0.4% lower in November than before the pandemic. Thanks to past stimulus, total income was actually 2% higher. It will be 13% higher once the new stimulus kicks in.
Yes, the economy is in bad shape. Total employment stands 9.8 million lower than in February. But leisure and hospitality accounts for a third of that deficit, and those jobs are unlikely to return until much of the population is vaccinated. How much the proposed $1,400 stimulus checks might accelerate the jobs recovery is debatable, given the healthy state of most consumers’ finances. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 60% of last spring’s $1,200 stimulus checks will eventually translate into higher economic output, and that might be an overestimate; one study found more than 80% of recipients either saved the money or used it to pay down debt."
"2.3 million more people were below the poverty line in November than February. About 2 million more mortgages are now delinquent than before the pandemic, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data provider."
"This hardship is overwhelmingly the result of people who lost work because of the pandemic"
"Because the pandemic fell hardest on low-paid workers, replacing their lost income isn’t that expensive. Returning the 10% poorest households to their February level of income would take $1.5 billion a month"
"Thanks mostly to a $600 bonus under the Cares Act, 75% of recipients earned more on UI than they did in their regular job"
"With the smaller, $300 bonus in the latest stimulus, roughly half will earn more"
"To get that back to 75% for 11 weeks could be done for about $20 billion"
"That would still leave gaps, for example revenue-strapped state and local governments. Helping them isn’t that big a lift: Their planned spending cuts this fiscal year come to $52 billion, a fraction of what Democrats wanted for a stimulus."
"As for the financial risks, we live in a world of probabilities, not certainties. While the probability of a nasty rise in inflation or interest rates is low, adding indiscriminately to the national debt leaves the country more exposed should they materialize—as low-probability outcomes sometimes do."
Evaluating the free market by comparing it to the alternatives (We don't need more regulations, We don't need more price controls, No Socialism in the courtroom, Hey, White House, leave us all alone)
Sunday, January 3, 2021
Returning the 10% poorest households to their February level of income would take $1.5 billion a month
See Yes, It Is Possible to Have Too Much Stimulus: Boosting stimulus checks to $2,000 would add a lot to the debt with little of that benefiting the unemployed by Greg Ip. Excerpts:
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