New Paper: Seismic Changes Signal 95% Probability Global Temps Will Hit 1990s Levels By 2019

From No Trick Zone.

"By Kenneth Richard on 9. April 2018

Mid-Ocean Seismicity Portends Global Cooling

Image Source: Viterito, 2016

Since the peak of the 2016 El Niño warming event, global temperatures have fallen by a little more than 0.3°C.

Image Source: WoodForTrees.org

According to a new paper published in Environment Pollution and Climate Change by Dr. Arthur Viterito, changes in seismic activity from the Earth’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA) are “a significant predictor of global temperatures (p<0 .05="" strong="">but CO2 is not

(p>0.05) (Table 1).”

An Overview Of The HGFA→Climate Link

Last year, Dr. Viterito succinctly explained the processes connecting high geothermal heat flux areas to the climate system.

 Viterito, 2017

“Namely, increased seismic activity in the HGFA (i.e., the mid-ocean’s spreading zones) serves as a proxy indicator of higher geothermal flux in these regions. The HGFA include the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, the West Chile Rise, the Ridges of the Indian Ocean, and the Ridges of the Antarctic/Southern Ocean.”

“This additional mid-ocean heating causes an acceleration of oceanic overturning and thermobaric convection, resulting in higher ocean temperatures and greater heat transport into the Arctic. This manifests itself as an anomaly known as the “Arctic Amplification,” where the Arctic warms to a much greater degree than the rest of the globe.”

“[J]umps in HGFA seismic activity can amplify an El Niño event, a phenomenon referred to as a SIENA or a Seismically Induced El Niño Amplification.  Accurately predicting two of these amplified El Niños (i.e., the 2015/2016 event plus the1997/1998 episode) is an important outcome of the HGFA seismicity/temperature relationship.”

New Paper: By 2019, Global Temps Will Drop To Mid-1990s Levels

In a new paper, Dr. Viterito has continued using seismic pattern analysis to formulate a very precise near-term temperature prediction: Global temperatures will continue their ongoing descent to about -0.47 °C below the 2016 peak by the year 2019.

Viterito, 2018

“A striking development for this experiment is that 2017 marks the first three-year decline in HGFA seismic activity since 1979 (Figure 2).  Furthermore, the 2017 HGFA seismic count is 49% lower than the study period’s peak frequency in 2014, the year of the last “Super El Niño”. When viewed within the context of the entire time series, the 2017 dropoff mirrors the jump in HGFA seismic activity experienced in 1995, albeit in the opposite direction. The 1995 “tipping point” was significant as global temperatures spiked in lockstep two years later, followed by a 21-year ‘plateau’ in both global temperatures and HGFA seismicity, a.k.a. ‘The Pause’.”

“It is important to note that a two-year lag is factored into the analysis: The 1979 HGFA seismic frequency is paired with the 1981 global temperature, the 1980 HGFA frequency is paired with the 1982 temperature, and so forth, for the entire series.”

“It is reasonable to conclude that this recent “gapping down” may be a tipping point towards cooler global temperatures. Using HGFAseismic frequencies as the sole predictor of global temperatures going forward, there is a 95% probability that global temperatures in 2019 will decline by 0.47°C ± 0.21°C from their 2016 peak. In other words, there is a 95% probability that 2019 temperatures will drop to levels not seen since the mid-1990s.”

Image Source (Top): WoodForTrees"