Saturday, September 12, 2015

Even Some Pro-Minimum Wage Economists Are Skeptical Of A $15 Level

See Joe Biden and the $15 Question: Some prominent liberal economists have drawn back from the latest crusade to increase the minimum wage by Michael Saltsman in the WSJ. Excerpt:
"In 2014 the White House touted a letter signed by economists who supported a $10.10 minimum wage. The list featured Cornell’s Ronald Ehrenberg, Georgetown’s Harry Holzer (a former Clinton appointee), and the University of Maryland’s Katharine Abraham"

"But when Bloomberg last month asked Ms. Abraham and Mr. Ehrenberg if they supported a $15 mandate, they said no. Ms. Abraham said she was “concerned about what a $15 minimum nationwide would do to employment.” Mr. Holzer, in a July opinion piece for Fortune magazine, described a $15 minimum wage as “extremely risky.”

Arindrajit Dube, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, has published controversial research suggesting that past increases in the minimum wage have had a minimal effect on employment. His work has been cited by the White House and congressional Democrats.

But $15 may be too much for Mr. Dube. In a 2014 paper for the Brookings Institution, he suggested that states could set “thoughtful” minimum-wage levels at half of the states’ full-time median wage. In a majority of states, this methodology produces a recommended wage level under $10 an hour. In no state does Mr. Dube’s recommendation rise to $15.

These prominent economists won’t deter unions from their quest to enact $15 wage floors around the county. But it should give pause to Democrats, presidential candidates in particular, who risk becoming unmoored from economic reality."

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