Sunday, May 10, 2015

GDP growth accelerated in 2013, despite a $500 billion decline in the budget deficit, and hundreds of Keynesians predicting a slowdown or even recession

See About that “impotent” monetary policy from Scott Sumner of Money Illusion.
"Here’s Paul Krugman:
The same impotence of conventional monetary policy that makes open-market purchases of Treasuries useless at boosting GDP also mean that broad monetary aggregates that include deposits are largely immune to Fed influence. The Fed can stuff the banks full of reserves, but at zero rates those reserves have no incentive to go anywhere, and even if they do they can sit in safes and mattresses.
Yes, if open market purchases of bonds don’t boost NGDP, then they would also fail to boost M2.  That’s what the liquidity trap theory says.  But it says far more than that. Here are some other implications of Krugman’s claim:

1.  QE fails to boost stock prices.
2.  QE fails to affect bond prices.
3.  QE fails to affect exchange rates.

You thought Japanese QE depreciated the yen?  That’s just your imagination.  You think QE recently caused the euro to depreciate?  You are hallucinating.  The dollar fell 6 cents on the day QE1 was announced, in March 2009?  That’s a coincidence.

GDP growth accelerated in 2013, despite a $500 billion decline in the budget deficit, and hundreds of Keynesians predicting a slowdown or even recession?  Nothing to do with QE."

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