Thursday, January 15, 2015

How Opposition To Fossil Fuels Hurts The Poor Most Of All

By Alex Epstein of Forbes. Excerpts:
"Consider China and India. In each country, both coal and oil use increased by at least a factor of 5 over the last 40 years, producing nearly all their energy—and both life expectancy and prosperity skyrocketed.
China, India Fossil Fuel use and Life Expectancy

Sources: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, Historical data workbook; World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) Online Data, April 2014
 
The story is clear—both life expectancy and income increased rapidly, meaning that life got better for billions of people in just a few decades. For example, the infant mortality rate has plummeted in both countries—in China by 70 percent, which translates to 66 more children living per 1000 births. India has experienced a similar decrease, of 58 percent.

Not only in China and India, but around the world, hundreds of millions of individuals in industrializing countries have gotten their first lightbulb, their first refrigerator, their first decent-paying job, their first year with clean drinking water or a full stomach. To take one particularly wonderful statistic, global malnutrition and undernourishment have plummeted—by 39 percent and 40 percent, respectively, since 1990."

"Back in the 1970s and 1980s, many leading environmentalists had predicted that this would be not only deadly, but unnecessary due to the cutting-edge promise of solar and wind (sound familiar?). Then as now, environmental leaders were arguing that renewable energy combined with conservation—using less energy—was a viable replacement for fossil fuels."

"From the 1970s to the present, fossil fuels have overwhelmingly been the fuel of choice, particularly for developing countries. Today the world uses 39 percent more oil, 107 percent more coal, and 131 percent more natural gas than it did in 1980.

Solar and wind are a minuscule portion of world energy use."

"The poor benefited most of all—but they would have stayed destitute had we listened to leading environmentalists."

"It is false that we are making the underdeveloped world more vulnerable to climate disaster.
Here is a graph of climate related deaths in the G7 nations, the leaders of the developed world, vs. the world as a whole, including underdeveloped nations.

G/, World climate deaths rate

Sources: EM-DAT International Disaster Database; World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI) Online Data, April 2014

 If we look at year-to-year data, there is a dramatic difference between the heavy fossil fuel users and the light fossil fuel users in climate-related deaths—you are much, much safer in an industrialized country. But those in non-industrialized countries are still better off—climate-related deaths are going down for everyone."

"Our technologies and our wealth have given poorer countries better, cheaper everything: materials for building buildings, medicine, food for drought relief. The scientific and medical discoveries we have made in the time that has been bought with fossil fuel-powered labor-saving machines benefit everyone around the world."



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