Higher Growth Rates Under Democrats Might Be Due To Luck

See Why is there superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents? by Tyler Cowen of "Marginal Revolution." Alan Blinder, who is quoted below, was an economic advisor to Clinton. Excerpt:

"Why is there superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents?

James Hamilton directs our attention to a useful new paper on this topic by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson (pdf).  Blinder and Watson conclude:

    Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim….It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly “good luck.” Specifically, Democratic presidents have experienced, on average, better oil shocks than Republicans, a better legacy of (utilization-adjusted) productivity shocks, and more optimistic consumer expectations (as measured by the Michigan ICE).

Perhaps one could attribute some of the “confidence gap” to policy differences, though the authors point out “…direct measures showing increasing optimism after Democrats are elected are hard to find.”  In any case this paper is a useful corrective to some common claims about superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents."

James Hamilton directs our attention to a useful new paper on this topic by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson (pdf).  Blinder and Watson conclude:

Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim….It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly “good luck.” Specifically, Democratic presidents have experienced, on average, better oil shocks than Republicans, a better legacy of (utilization-adjusted) productivity shocks, and more optimistic consumer expectations (as measured by the Michigan ICE).

Perhaps one could attribute some of the “confidence gap” to policy differences, though the authors point out “…direct measures showing increasing optimism after Democrats are elected are hard to find.”  In any case this paper is a useful corrective to some common claims about superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents. 
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/why-is-there-superior-economic-performance-under-democratic-presidents.html#sthash.s4LMYm8Z.dpuf

James Hamilton directs our attention to a useful new paper on this topic by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson (pdf).  Blinder and Watson conclude:

Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim….It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly “good luck.” Specifically, Democratic presidents have experienced, on average, better oil shocks than Republicans, a better legacy of (utilization-adjusted) productivity shocks, and more optimistic consumer expectations (as measured by the Michigan ICE).

Perhaps one could attribute some of the “confidence gap” to policy differences, though the authors point out “…direct measures showing increasing optimism after Democrats are elected are hard to find.”  In any case this paper is a useful corrective to some common claims about superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents. 
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/why-is-there-superior-economic-performance-under-democratic-presidents.html#sthash.s4LMYm8Z.dpuf

James Hamilton directs our attention to a useful new paper on this topic by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson (pdf).  Blinder and Watson conclude:

Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim….It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly “good luck.” Specifically, Democratic presidents have experienced, on average, better oil shocks than Republicans, a better legacy of (utilization-adjusted) productivity shocks, and more optimistic consumer expectations (as measured by the Michigan ICE).

Perhaps one could attribute some of the “confidence gap” to policy differences, though the authors point out “…direct measures showing increasing optimism after Democrats are elected are hard to find.”  In any case this paper is a useful corrective to some common claims about superior economic performance under Democratic Presidents. 
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/why-is-there-superior-economic-performance-under-democratic-presidents.html#sthash.s4LMYm8Z.dpuf